The cost to heat a home in Massachusetts is rising sharply for households that rely on heating oil. National EIA projections indicate that heating oil expenditures will rise this winter. Whether you live in a Cape in Marlborough, a triple-decker in Worcester, or a farmhouse in the Berkshires, your heating fuel and home’s efficiency both affect winter costs.
Here is a comparison of estimated 2026-27 heating costs using published fuel prices and stated assumptions.
Why This Winter Is Different: Oil Prices and the Energy Emergency
Heating oil prices in Massachusetts have risen substantially since last year. The Department of Energy Resources (DOER) survey published October 26, 2026, lists an average of $6.23 per gallon, compared with $3.63 per gallon last year, an increase of about 72%. Check DOER’s weekly survey for the latest prices.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects households nationwide that heat primarily with oil to spend about 21% more this winter than last winter. Its forecast projects average expenditures to decline by about 3% for propane and 9% for natural gas, while electricity expenditures rise about 4%.
On October 5, 2026, Governor Maura Healey declared a State of Energy Emergency and announced expanded heating assistance and temporary electric-bill relief. Our earlier post on how heating oil is projected to cost 31 percent more this winter shows how quickly estimates can shift.
Heating Oil: Expected Winter Cost
A home requiring about 45 million BTU of delivered space heat uses approximately 380 gallons of heating oil with an 85% AFUE boiler. At $6.23 per gallon, the estimated seasonal fuel cost is about $2,380. A full 275-gallon tank would cost approximately $1,713 at this price. Cash, will-call, and other dealer pricing may differ from the state survey average.
If you are weighing a switch away from oil, our 2026 Massachusetts heating guide compares the options for older homes. Our current promotions can also alleviate some of the upfront cost.
Natural Gas: Expected Winter Cost
About 52% of Massachusetts households use utility gas as their primary heating fuel. National Grid customers are expected to see relatively flat bills for now. Former Columbia Gas customers served by Eversource are expected to see winter heating bills in Massachusetts decline by about 5%. NSTAR gas customers are expected to see bills increase by about 7%.
For comparison, with an assumed natural gas price of $2.03 per therm and a 95% AFUE furnace or boiler, the estimated seasonal fuel cost is $965 for 45 million BTU of delivered heat.
If you’re making a heat pump vs. natural gas cost comparison in Massachusetts, natural gas has the lower modeled fuel cost. The difference depends on the home’s heating load, gas and electric rates, and the heat pump’s seasonal efficiency. Electricity can cost more per unit of delivered heat even when a heat pump uses substantially less energy than a conventional heating system. Heat pump efficiency doesn’t always lower winter heating bills.
Propane: Expected Winter Cost
Propane is the primary heating fuel for about 4.4% of Massachusetts households, including homes that rely on delivered fuel where utility gas is unavailable. DOER’s survey lists an average propane price of $3.94 per gallon, about 9% higher than last year.
At a propane price of $3.94 per gallon and 95% AFUE, you can expect a seasonal fuel cost of $2,040 for 45 million BTU of delivered heat. In a propane vs. heat pump comparison, the modeled heat pump cost is lower under the assumed seasonal electric rate and COP. Review our flexible financing options if you’re considering a heating system conversion.
Heat Pumps: Expected Winter Cost
Electric heat pumps can have substantially different operating costs. Massachusetts offers a Seasonal Heat Pump Rate to eligible residential customers of Eversource, National Grid, and Unitil. From November 1 through April 30, eligible customers receive reduced winter distribution and transmission charges. The discounted winter savings rate applies to all household electricity usage, not just electricity consumed by the heat pump.
Assuming a seasonal coefficient of performance (COP) of 2.5 to 3, a delivered heating load of 45 million BTU, and an electricity price of $0.25 per kWh, the modeled heat pump fuel cost is $1,100 to $1,320 for the season. At an assumed $0.32 per kWh standard rate, the modeled cost is $1,410 to $1,690. In a heat pump vs. oil cost comparison, the modeled seasonal heat pump fuel cost is substantially lower than oil at the current survey price.
Side-by-Side: Cost Comparison Table
Below, you can review how different fuels compare for a modeled home requiring 45 million BTU of delivered space heat over the winter. These figures estimate fuel or electricity costs only, not installation, maintenance, equipment replacement, or other charges. Actual costs will vary with home size, insulation, system efficiency, utility rates, and winter weather.
| Heating system | Price assumption | Efficiency | Estimated winter cost |
| Heating oil | $6.23 per gallon | 85% AFUE | $2,380 |
| Propane | $3.94 per gallon | 95% AFUE | $2,040 |
| Natural gas | $2.03 per therm | 95% AFUE | $965 |
| Heat pump (seasonal rate) | $0.25 per kWh | COP 2.5 to 3 | $1,210 |
| Heat pump (standard rate) | $0.32 per kWh | COP 2.5 to 3 | $1,550 |
Under these assumptions, natural gas has the lowest estimated fuel cost, followed by a heat pump. Propane and heating oil have higher modeled costs. The cheapest way to heat a house in Massachusetts depends on the home’s existing system, fuel availability, utility rates, and heating demand.
Help With This Winter’s Bills
If this winter’s heating prices are stretching your budget, several Massachusetts assistance programs may help eligible households.
Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP)
The Home Energy Assistance Program’s FY2027 heating assistance period runs from November 1, 2026, through April 30, 2027. Mass.gov lists estimated deliverable-fuel benefits of $870 to $1,450 and estimated utility benefits of $600 to $1,000 for eligible households.
Emergency oil benefit
Massachusetts’ new Middle-Income Heating Oil Relief program offers eligible households that use #2 heating oil a one-time benefit of up to $680. Household gross income must be above 60% but below 100% of state median income, and the household must otherwise be ineligible for HEAP.
SMART charge relief
Massachusetts plans to use state funding to cover the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target program charge on residential and commercial electric bills for January through March 2027.
Lowering Next Winter’s Bill: Weatherization, Upgrades, and Rebates
The fuel you burn is only half the equation. Older Massachusetts homes, like drafty Capes and leaky colonials, lose heat through attics, rim joists, and window gaps. A Mass Save® home energy assessment shows where your home leaks. New insulation often cuts the heating load your system has to meet.
Upgrades pay off most when paired with incentives. Check out the available rebates for heat pumps and weatherization. A tighter, better-insulated home may require less heating capacity, which can allow a properly sized replacement system to be smaller.
Make a Plan Before the Next Cold Snap
You can’t control the price of oil, but you can control how much of it your home needs. Whether you are staying put this winter or planning a heat pump install before next fall, a free estimate gives you real numbers for your house, not averages. Contact Endless Energy to compare your options.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the cheapest way to heat a home in Massachusetts?
Natural gas has the lowest estimated seasonal fuel cost. Actual costs depend on the home’s heating load, equipment efficiency, and utility rates.
How much does it cost to heat a house with oil in Massachusetts?
At DOER’s average price of $6.23 per gallon, the modeled home spends approximately $2,380 on heating oil for the season. Larger or less insulated homes can spend considerably more.
Is a heat pump cheaper than oil?
A heat pump has a substantially lower estimated seasonal fuel cost than heating oil. The difference is greatest when the homeowner qualifies for the Seasonal Heat Pump Rate.
Is a heat pump cheaper than natural gas in Massachusetts?
Natural gas has a lower estimated seasonal fuel cost than a heat pump. The difference will vary depending on the home’s heating demand, gas and electric rates, and the heat pump’s seasonal COP.
Why are heating oil prices so high this winter?
The EIA attributes higher heating oil expenditures to rising global distillate prices and lower inventories. Heating oil is affected by global crude oil and distillate markets, so local households have limited control over price changes.
What help is available for winter heating bills in Massachusetts?
HEAP provides heating assistance for eligible households, and the new Middle-Income Heating Oil Relief program offers a one-time benefit to qualifying households. Massachusetts also plans to cover the SMART charge on electric bills from January through March 2027.
